On current polls, around 16 National MPs will be out.

If they don’t lose electorate seats, then Nicola Willis and Speaker Gerry Brownlee could be at risk because they are running on the party list, and Chris Bishop needs a list place. For them to be re-elected, they need National to lose electorates. So senior members of the National team have an interest in sitting National MPs losing seats.

Like desperate punters taking ever longer shots to recover their losses, backbenchers will be telling themselves that Christopher Luxon can turn things around. Nothing in public opinion polls supports the case. The public have made up our mind about the Prime Minister. His high negatives are locked in and placing a hard cap on National’s support.

National’s own strategists know he is a drag on the ticket. Local MP flyers usually feature the party leader’s picture alongside messages from the candidate and bullet points of policy wins. Luxon does not appear on the leaflets I have seen. On a drive across the countryside, National’s billboards bang on about tax, Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori. They do not mention National or the PM. He may not have noticed this, as those hoardings are hard to see from the window of an Air Force plane.

Which brings us to the other problem: the daily blunder.

Josie weighs in on The Post.